Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Sports Guy, school, and the lottery

It's lunch right now at school, and I'm so excited for the draft lottery that I had to write a quick post.

The Sports Guy wrote about basketball karma today, and I think membership in the cult of Boston effected this article in every way. I think that my membership in a similar group of Blazer fans biases me. Even so, it's hard for me to see how the Celtics can rate so highly on the "overdue good karma." This is a team that strip mined other franchises for talent over the course of its history. I don't have a problem with it, but I think that balances some of the things that have happened to Boston in the last 20 years.

In addition, I would think a Boston fan would be even more sensitive to the plight of long-running "nearly there" teams. Yeah, it was something to be proud of when the Blazers just kept making the playoffs. But it often felt like we kept just making the playoffs.

My last bone to pick with the SG is how he ranked Portland. The Blazers had nearly as much bad luck as any team this year. The luck might not have been the reason they finished in the lottery, but it definitely affected the outcome. Injuries to all sorts of players--including but not limited to the stars--cost Portland at least a few wins. The Blazers also have shown that their current front office competency is much higher than a four. How could the level of devastation be only a four? We're celebrating the 30th anniversary of the only championship this city has ever seen, and the SG himself talked about what happened to the team in his column about The Breaks of the Game. I know my bias is clear (always), but I think the Blazers should be higher on his list.

I've been playing the lottery simulator a lot on ESPN.com today, and I've come up with my ideal situation:

  • 1. Blazers
  • 2. Blazers
  • 3. Hawks
  • and so on
  • 11. Hawks

Of course, I don't even know how Portland could pull that off. So instead, I'll say this:

Portland 1 or 2, and Boston and Atlanta between the other two of the top three picks, with Atlanta keeping pick 11 as well.

The Sports Guy has influenced me enough to care that the Celtics get something really good in this draft. I care about J-Lew's team and would like him to have something really positive to think about this off-season. And I want Portland to draft Oden or Durant (or both...who knows?).

Worst possible scenario? I wouldn't like the Blazers to fall, but that wouldn't be the worst. The worst would be if the Hawks lost both of their first round picks and the Bulls or Timberwolves got a top three pick as well. I would be really upset if that happened.

I plan on finding a place to watch the lottery tonight. If I do, you can count on a running diary of the event.

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