A better choice than Lee (in the long run)

If we really want to sign a guy who can back up LaMarcus – and maybe Greg in case we move Joel Przybilla – we should look at Leon Powe. Others have said it, and I know that he just had knee surgery. But the guy is a great player, has been an important part (already) of a team with championship aspirations, and brings the effort and hustle we want from our back up PF. Throw in that his asking price can't be as high as Lee's, and that leaves us with some cap room still to make an unbalanced trade. Maybe it wouldn't allow us to get Paul and Battier like I dreamed up the other day, but something good still, I think. And I know this would leave us without a solid veteran back up 4 until sometime after February, but if we don't trade Joel until then – if at all – I think we can survive just fine with Pendergraph (and Outlaw, if he's still around).

The best course of action

Okay, now we can really get to it. If we were willing to overpay for Turkoglu, why not do this instead: overpay for Artest and steal him away from the Lakers. We'd accomplish three things at once.

1. Get a player who is older than we want and a problem for our offense, at too high a price.
2. Get a player who could help out on defense.
3. Screw the Lakers.

Of course I don't really want to do this, but it would be pretty funny. And Artest has changed his mind on things like this quicker than you can blink before. Look back at last year's free agent period if you don't remember.

What we should really do is look to Houston. As Dave said on Blazer's Edge early this morning:

1. Yao Ming is out indefinitely. Tracy McGrady is eternally questionable and maybe on his way out of town. That's a ton of scoring power out the window...the two main pillars of the franchise entering the year. Battier is an amazing complementary player, perfect alongside those guys. If they're gone Houston needs more firepower. All of a sudden Battier looks like a nice piece who doesn't fit anymore, kind of like your beautiful sandcastle after the tide has come in. It's under that flood somewhere but you're not getting much use out of it anymore.

2. Just today, as reported below, Ron Artest committed to the L*kers while Trevor Ariza reportedly agreed to join the Rockets. On the surface this appears to make Battier more valuable to Houston, as the guy he formed a battery with is gone. But Ariza is, in many ways, a younger, cheaper Battier. They could use a contrast there.

So here's what we do: we get both our guys, right now. Three team deal that uses our cap spaces, solves the problem that Houston will have with lack of offense and no back up (or starter, perhaps) at center, and helps another team save money in the long run.

Portland sends out four good players; four players that I really like. Jerryd Bayless, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw, and Joel Przybilla. Przy and Trout go to Houston to help fill some empty spots there. But that's not enough for Houston to do it unless we help them dump T-Mac for something now. So we bring in a team that will love T-Mac's expiring deal if it can get rid of one of it's albatrosses. So McGrady goes to the Hornets, along with Martell Webster and Jerryd Bayless. The Hornets, in order to do this, have to give up the prize of the whole trade. Chris Paul comes to Portland, but they get to shed Peja Stojakavic and Morris Peterson, sending both of them to Houston. Both of those guys could potentially help with the offense of the Rockets and play shooting guard or small forward, which would help a team that just lost all three of their 2/3 type players from the year before.

In this deal New Orleans would immediately get four million in cap relief, most likely keeping them out of the luxury tax. They would get even more relief at the end of the season when McGrady's contract expires. Also, they get two young guys to build with. I know that I value Webster more highly than others, so I won't say much about him. But I think that Bayless is going to be pretty amazing, and I think a lot of other people would agree with me. Houston gets some offense to replace the loss of Artest and McGrady (who was already lost anyway), and now doesn't have the old version of Ariza to go with the new version they just signed. They also get a very good NBA center (and one that I really don't want to trade) in Joel Przybilla. He'd be the perfect back up to Yao, but for the time being he'd be a decent starter alongside Scola. I know they might not like this deal very much for the contracts they get, so we might have to add a piece to make it happen. This would be my initial offer. If the Rockets instead insisted on a guy that seems more like what they'd want in James Posey, that would work. He again fits more of the Battier/Ariza role than Morris Peterson, who on his best days is closer to a poor man's version of McGrady. Also, if either team insisted on Rudy Fernandez to make this deal go through, the Blazers could add him. That would be one more guy I really don't want to give up, but for these two guys – who I believe would put us in championship contention immediately – it would be worth it. The Blazers would then need to sign someone like Antonio McDyess or Chris Anderson at the mid-level exception to back up Oden. Actually, Anderson would fit well with Portland then, since he is similar to Przybilla but not quite as productive.

Here's how the rosters would most likely look for the three teams if they did this deal:

Houston

• PG Aaron Brooks/Kyle Lowry
• SG (Rudy Fernandez)/Morris Peterson or James Posey/Brent Barry
• SF Trevor Ariza/Travis Outlaw/Peja Stojakovic/James White/Chase Budinger
  
• PF Luis Scola/Chuck Hayes/Carl Landry
• C You Ming/Joel Przybilla/Joey Dorsey/Brian Cook

That would be if they insisted on Rudy, and I'm sure that there may be a difference in the way that line up would look, perhaps with Ariza starting at the two – if Rudy went to New Orleans – and Outlaw at the three. Or with Yao hurt, maybe they go small with Scola starting at center, Przybilla still coming in off the bench, Outlaw at power forward and Ariza at small.

New Orleans

• PG Jerryd Bayless/Darren Collison/Antonio Daniels
• SG (Rudy Fernandez)/Rasual Butler/Morris Peterson (if not traded)/Devin Brown/Marcus Thornton
  
• SF Martell Webster/James Posey (if not traded)/Tracy McGrady (injured)
• PF David West/Julian Wright (probably also playing some SF)
• C Tyson Chandler/Hilton Armstrong

Again, if the Hornets insisted on Rudy being included for them to make the deal (instead of the Rockets or no one) he would probably be their starting shooting guard. Depending on which of MoPete and Posey they traded would effect how that depth chart looks, but probably not how the guy would get played. They would still be thin in the front court, but that's the case currently as well. If by some miracle T-Mac got healthy before the end of next year he would give them some offense, too. Again, though, this deal for them is about saving money at a time when the franchise is in big trouble.

Portland

• PG Chris Paul/Steve Blake/Patty Mills
• SG Brandon Roy/Rudy Fernandez (if not traded)
• SF Shane Battier/Nicolas Batum/Victor Claver
• PF LaMarcus Aldridge/Jeff Pendergraph/Dante Cunningham/Joel Freeland
• C Greg Oden/Chris Anderson

As you can see, making this trade would force us to get a back up big in free agency, and would probably force us to bring over some of our guys stashed in Europe before we really want. But even so, it's not hard to convince anyone that we get the best in this deal (which is why it wouldn't happen). If we could somehow keep Rudy, then the guard rotation of him with Roy and Paul would be amazing. But even if we couldn't, a three guard rotation with those two and Steve Blake is pretty good. And the learning that would happen as Batum – and then Claver – played with Battier would be amazing. That starting line up is also quite formidable defensively. In addition, if we could actually sign Anderson then we would keep a rotation similar to the one we are probably moving toward anyway, with one of those three back up PFs being relied on for a little bit of offense when Anderson is in the game. Or we just play him and LaMarcus or him and Greg together.

So there it is, that's the panic move that needs to happen as soon as the new salary cap is announced on July 8, since Hedo didn't pan out. I'm calling dynasty (and tons of luxury tax) in the very near future.

To see all the possible deals that work, click the corresponding link:
Without Rudy:
Posey to Houston
MoPete to Houston

With Rudy to New Orleans:
Posey to Houston
MoPete to Houston

With Rudy to Houston:
Posey to Houston
MoPete to Houston

Blazers/Spurs (fourth quarter)

The Blazers start this quarter with 78 points, which is a pretty good total considering they've played three periods against the vaunted Spurs defense.

I don't really like the look of Batum's three point jumper, but I love that he doesn't hesitate to shoot it when he's open. It also doesn't hurt that we have good offensive rebounders who create second chance points. If only we could improve at the same thing on the defensive end.

Free throws had better not plague this team this year.

Something that won't plague this team – even though it did against the Lakers on opening day – is open jump shots. Channing Frye just hit another one. When Oden comes back healthy and opposing teams have to focus even more defensive energy on our interior, we should start raining in mid-range and long-range jumpers all over the place.

By extending Martell Webster today, the Blazers ensured that they won't have to deal with the cap-hold they would have had going into free agency next year. By signing Webster to that deal, they might have a) locked up a good young player for a decent price b) signed a guy to a reasonable deal that will make him more attractive as part of a trade c) simply made sure that the cap hold wouldn't affect them next year.

Channing Frye just went past Duncan and dunked it. He also seemed to giggle a little bit as he slid around Duncan, as if he knew that he got away with something.

I hate seeing Sergio get frustrated. A frustrated Sergio is an ineffective Sergio.

That pass by Tony Parker was really nice. I think the Blazers are going to get some starters back in the game now.

I thought that was decent defense by Przybilla on Duncan, but that call will always go Duncan's way.

Brandon Roy just got to the rim on Duncan. He has to hit his free throws, but I love that he can drive against anyone. And he nails the first. I love Brandon Roy. Both.

It looked like Duncan was complaining about the foul they just called against Przybilla. That's hilarious.

Brandon Roy just took Outlaw aside to do some coaching on the floor. What a great player and leader.

Again Roy takes the lane.

I like that Aldridge is willing to take the three pointer and can hit it, but I don't think he should take it when he has someone near him like that.

Brandon Roy does not play like a third year player, helping Przybilla tie up Duncan to force that jump ball.

A great point being made right now is that all of San Antonio's three pointers in the fourth quarter have come on kick outs from dribble penetration. Portland needs to make sure they learn to do that better.

Did I mention that LaMarcus Aldridge is the guy I consider the top scorer for this season.

This is a big defensive possession for Portland.

I love that McMillan is trusting Batum to be in at the end of this game.

We need a good play here.

Good defense to end the night for Portland. That was a lot of fun.

Best sign of the night:
Everybody's
Scared of
Portland
Now

Blazers/Spurs (third quarter)

Portland is still the second youngest team in the NBA this season. Crazy.

I've been telling people that Aldridge would eat the league up this year. It looks like he's working his way toward that.

Tim Duncan is a great basketball player.

The announcers are claiming that Kurt Thomas flopped on that last foul call against Aldridge, but I didn't complain about it.

Pretty ball movement from Roy and Aldridge to get Outlaw a nice corner three.

Well done by Lincoln on that commercial. I just don't think you can go wrong with a tasteful David Bowie cover.

Joel Przybilla making his money underneath on that one.

Pretty play by Aldridge and Oulaw that resulted in Duncan fouling Outlaw on his way up for a dunk. I think he looks much better in this game than he did on Tuesday, which is making it harder for me to stick to my position that he should be one of the ones to go if anyone must leave.

Jon Barry just claimed that Roy was doing "what he does best – puts the ball in the basket." I don't know if I agree with that statement. Roy does way too many things well to claim that scoring is the thing he does best.

Holy crap Nicolas Batum is a great basketball player.

Brandon Roy will take whatever he's given. And the Spurs are giving him a lot right now.

Fast break points. We love those. Nicolas Batum. We love him. Too bad I haven't been blogging, because I was talking about him like this even before I got to see him play.

Blazers/Spurs (second quarter)

I love Pop. That interview with him was classic.

This second unit is so much fun to watch on the offensive end. Rudy and Sergio are great together.

They just showed a replay of Batum's block of Duncan. This kid is brilliant.

BATUM IS UNREAL!!

Batum just got compared to Tayshaun Prince by Jon Barry. I've been saying it since the beginning of training camp.

Przybilla just got some love from the announcers, which is nice. He deserves it.

A miss by Batum, but it was a good jumper in the flow of the offense. Now that I'm actually getting to see him I like him as much as I thought I would.

Przybilla just earned a foul with good position, so I won't complain any more about what seems like one sided officiating.

Sergio just missed a three, but Rudy corralled the long offensive board. Sadly, LaMarcus missed another mid-range jumper. It'll come, but he's been missing a lot of them again tonight.

BATUM!!! (He picked up a loose ball, beat two Spur defenders, and then made the and-1 as he got fouled on the lay-in. Then he hit the free throw. Ridiculous.)

"This Batum guy is impressive." --a text I just received from J-Lew. I agree Lew, I agree completely.

It's good to see Aldridge getting to the line and hitting.

The only thing the announcers failed to mention when talking about why Travis Outlaw has improved so much statistically is that he's the Gatling gun. 1000 shots per minute.

Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge are so great.

A funny disparity between the Blazers tonight and the Blazers on Tuesday is how young we looked in LA and how mature we look tonight. This is the way we need to look if we're going to have a successful year.

If we keep playing zone, we need to make sure we don't get beaten when they swing the ball around. We just got beaten again by a wide open three point shooter for San Antonio.

Brandon Roy is my favorite Blazer ever.

(Okay, Sabonis is still number one. But that shot, the composure, the defense he displayed earlier...all those things are the reasons he is ahead of Clyde and Rasheed on the all-time list.)

Tale of the tape: Roy vs. Bryant (it's all about the defense)

Yesterday as I was sitting at It's a Grind with my brother, both of us reading our daily dose of NBA news and blogs, I started talking to him about a specific element of the Blazers win over the Lakers on Tuesday night. Specifically, I was working out an idea that came to me concerning the Roy-Bryant match up. In his Late Wednesday Mini-Bullets, Henry over at TrueHoop quoted Michael Jordan from an article Jack McCallum wrote about him in 1989. Have I mentioned that I love the new SI Vault? The gist of the quote from Jordan was that the best way to defend him was to make him play defense against a guard who had a physical offensive game. This tired him out and kept him from being as physical against them on the other end. When I read the quote it reminded me that Jordan was an exceptional defender who focused on that even more than scoring.

What does that have to do with Kobe? I was shocked as I watched the KCAL 9 broadcast here in LA that Roy could play as well offensively as he did against Bryant. Several times Roy broke Bryant down on the edge, beat another guy, and made an easy layup. Bryant didn't do that to Roy nearly as badly on the other end. By my count, four of Roy's eight field goals were layups.
One of his field goals was a three, one was a wide open 22-footer, one was an eight-foot jump shot early, and the other was a nine-foot runner in the fourth. Of his seven missed shots, five were jumpers from outside the key, including two three point misses. On the other hand, Kobe made 11 of 26 from the field. Twelve of his fifteen misses were jump shots from outside the key, including five failed three point attempts. Of the ones that he made, one was a dunk, two were layups, two were three-pointers, two were four foot running j's, one was an eight-footer, one was a 21-foot jumper, and two of his shots don't have a distance on the ESPN play-by-play. If you aren't already bored by reading what shots were taken, you might be wondering why it matters. I mean, Bryant scored 34 and Roy only had 23 – Kobe was 10-13 from the stripe while Roy was 6-8, showing a good effort by each of them getting inside.

As I thought about the ways Roy scored on Bryant compared with the ways Bryant scored on Roy – and, in fairness, Outlaw – I realized that Kobe was working a lot harder for his shots than Brandon was. Roy was taking the lane when it was given, shooting open jumpers when they presented themselves, and directing the flow of the offense. But Kobe was often taking the time to force his way into the lane, or else use some combination of moves to set up his beautiful turn-around jumper. This is where the difference between Bryant and Jordan (as evidenced in the aforementioned quote) really stuck out to me: Bryant could have shut Roy down. He's that good of a defender. But instead, he spent more energy on making sure he got his points. And yes, he scored more than Roy. But I looked at the assists for each and what those assists led to, and it tells the tale that Roy actually contributed to more offensive production than Bryant did.

Bryant had five assists. Three of them were to Lamar Odom for layups (two) or dunks (one). The other two assists were from hitting Radmanovic outside for the three. That means Bryant scored 34 and was directly responsible for getting his teammates the ball for 12 more. In total, I'll say that Kobe created 46 of the Lakers' 103 points. Roy had a career-high tying 12 assists. Four of those set up three-point field goals, and the other eight went to guys making mid-range jumpers or layups. So Roy scored 23 of his own points, and was directly responsible for getting his teammates the ball for 28 more. In total, I'll say that Brandon created 51 of the Blazers' 112 points. Of course this doesn't take into account the fact that the Blazers might have given up points to the Lakers because of the way they defended Bryant, plays on which he got no statistical credit. I wouldn't suggest that those sorts of plays would be even with the same type for Roy on the Lakers' side, but I don't think they would be too far off, either, and since they are immeasurable I really can't speak to them.

Being the type of defender that Kobe Bryant is, I believe he had the ability not only to stop Roy from scoring 23, but from directly creating as much as he did for teammates. Certainly some of the blame must go to other LA defenders, but when you're as talented and highly regarded as Kobe is, you need to shut down the opposition. If Kobe had decided to make Roy work harder for his offense, he might have scored a few less points. But I really think that the reduction in Roy's contribution would have been far more significant. Yeah, there were many other factors in the game, but for the Lakers to win in the playoffs it's Kobe's defense that needs to be at its best, not his offense. His offense will take care of itself.

One last note: I realize that the Lakers were without any real low-post presence on defense, which also contributed to Roy's ability to drive. But the Blazers have been without their chosen low-post presence – Oden – all season, and were without their next best option – Joel Przybilla, thanks to a broken hand – in this one. That left the über-tough Channing Frye as the center. I love me some Channing, but he is not my first (or second or third or fourth) choice for a tough inside presence on defense.

A Clipper sweep

The last two nights set a record for me this season: most back-to-back Blazer games watched this season. I nearly went to the game last night at the Staples Center, but decided that I didn't want to deal with downtown and the blue line that late the night before finally flying to Chicago.

I wish I would have been there, if only to see Joel Przybilla completely destroy the Clippers on the boards. Przybilla was fantastic, and he brought some offense too. It really did look like a preview of what Oden could do next year. Interested in seeing how he's doing? This article will lead you through it. Great stuff from Jason Quick, as always.

LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy were once again great in the same game. It was Aldridge's ninth straight game over 20 points. That's another great sign for next season. If he can play like this consistently next year, and Roy stays the steady presence he has been all year, this team will be so good. Add Oden and Rudy Fernandez (who, according to Pritchard, is coming over next year) to this team and it's even more exciting than I would have thought.

Another great sign from these two games – the last three, actually – is the point guard play of Steve Blake. His defense has been a little shaky, and his shooting has actually been a little down. But the way he led the offense and his assist to turnover ratio has been really great. He has had 23 assists and one turnover in the last three games. If he can keep doing that next year, and Sergio Rodriguez can make a leap this summer, I don't think we need a new point guard. I know, that's risky to say, but I think it might be true.

Alright, I'm going to get back to reading The Breaks of the Game while I wait for my flight to leave. Stupid snow in Chicago. Stupid.

Two quick posts in one night

I didn't plan to do this, but I'm listening to the Blazers game against the Pistons right now, and I couldn't help it. I'm also watching the game cast, and it's ahead of the radio broadcast. This made me think about switching over. The reason I don't? The Blazers are playing great basketball right now, and it is way too exciting listening to the crowd go nuts as the announcers tell me what I know already happened. Some quick in-game notes:

1. Jarrett Jack is fantastic for this team off the bench. It's great.


2. Przybilla is great. He's one-for-one from the floor and two-for-two from the line so far, to go with six rebounds and one block. Oh yeah, it's only the second quarter, with five minutes left. And he just set another huge pick. I love it.


3. Rasheed Wallace is great, and I still love him.

That's it, time to go home soon and watch HOUSE, M.D.

How could I have forgotten?

Umm, I just watched the video that sits below this text. I'm sitting in a coffee shop, and I think people around me thought I was a little loopy because I was giggling like a little kid who has heard the best poop joke ever. Watch the video, then keep reading.


Somehow, as soon as Greg went down I forgot that he was on the team. In fact, somehow my mind just latched onto Taurean Green and Josh McRoberts as our only rookies this year. And technically they are. In my head I keep thinking about the value that we got out of the draft, because our two late picks are guys that should end up contributing at some point, even if that contribution is just making the team better by working hard in practice this year. But those aren't the only two guys we got in the draft. Nope. We also drafted Oden and Rudy Fernandez. Well, we actually traded for the rights to Fernandez, but I'm still considering that a draft pick. I don't know how many people remember this post, but I'll reference myself for fun:

Now for the reality check: as much as I was thinking about winning every game while reading the various accounts of the game, there's no way we'll even win more than 35 games this year. So that's what I want, along with some payback from the bouncing balls for us getting the fourth pick last year. Then we can still draft Oden and build on what happens this year...[then I put pictures up of what I thought would be the starting line up of the 2009 NBA champion Blazers]...
PG Sergio Rodriguez
SG Brandon Roy
SF Martell Webster
PF Zach Randolph
C Greg Oden

Once again I'm impressed with how well I predicted the season and the lottery on the opening day of the season last year. What I'm more impressed by, though, is that at the time I had no idea how good LaMarcus would be, and how soon he would be that good. I was always a big advocate for Randolph, especially because of the stories about how hard he worked. Henry Abbott of TrueHoop said this in June:

Scottie Pippen once told me that Randolph works harder than any teammate he has ever had.

I mean, that makes Zach a harder worker than, umm, Michael Jordan, right? At least in Scottie's opinion? Well, Nate McMillan was quoted in an article last week by Jason Quick of the Oregonian. Here's the whole section from Quick:

"I've never seen a starter in this league work like he does," McMillan said after a recent practice. "And it's every day. I mean look..."

McMillan pointed to Aldridge, who was shooting on the far side of the practice court, shirtless, his sweat-soaked jersey off to the side.

In that same article Quick included this piece:

And Bobby Medina, who is entering his 11th season as the Blazers' strength and conditioning coach, said Aldridge's work ethic in the weight room reminds him of former Blazers great Scottie Pippen, whose maniacal workout regime is legendary.

Let me use some logic here that I've been teaching my geometry students. If Scottie, who was known for how hard he worked, said that Zach worked harder than any teammate he'd ever had, and then Nate McMillan, who played in the NBA for a while and has coached a few years, said that he's never seen a starter in this league work like he does, then by the transitive property, McMillan must be suggesting that LaMarcus also works harder than a certain MJ. Throw in the fact that Medina compared LaMarcus' habits to Scottie, whose original statement set the table for this argument, and I think we can at least be certain that Aldridge is going to continue improving for a while.

Alright, I think that took me off subject for a second, so let's come back: I've been so focused on Aldridge, Przybilla, Roy, and Webster, that I nearly put Oden and Fernandez completely out of my mind. In that clip above this text we see Aldridge and Oden finding each other with really good passes. Sure, they don't finish very many of them. And sure, it was in summer league. But it was also within the first month that the two had played together. They were already playing like that and they'd only been together for less than a month. The reason that's really scary? The way the Blazers played against San Antonio on Tuesday and all the news from camp and the preseason have allowed me to focus on the team this year, instead of what they'll be when Oden gets back. That reminder of what they looked like with the two bigs together for just a second is the glimpse I need to get me absolutely excited again about next year. Regardless of a new draft pick, or some trade, or even another free agent signing, next year should bring the two best picks from this year's draft to the team. If Webster plays like this all season, Outlaw continues to be a great sixth man, Przybilla is consistent with his resurgence, and the expected guys step into the roles we envision for them next year, we only have one question mark in our nine man rotation next year. Seriously. We have a front court that includes Webster, Aldridge, and Oden in the starting unit, with Outlaw and Przybilla supplying relief off the bench. We have a great Ginobili-like sixth man in Rudy Fernandez, spelling our team leader SG/PG Brandon Roy. The only real question is who starts at point guard, and if it's Roy, then who ends up as the combo guard giving breaks to Roy and Fernandez. But PG is the position we still have perhaps the most potential. Now do you understand why I'm giddy? This team will surprise people for some wins this year. But next year? We won't surprise anyone, we'll just beat them anyway.

I just nearly giggled to myself again, that's how exciting this is.

If I end up back in Oregon anytime soon because I get sick of LA or teaching down here is just too much, I plan on making as many Blazer games as possible. In fact, if I end up in Portland, I'm going to get season tickets. Being there for the dynasty will be even more fun than writing about it is now. And writing about it now is pretty fun. I can't wait...fortunately, while I have to wait for that, I don't have to wait to see the NBA's youngest team come out hard against every team this year.

I'll end with a quote from the Basketball Jones podcast yesterday, as they spent most of the time they were talking about the Blazers/Spurs game focusing on Portland:

SKEETS-The Blazer specifically – you can really tell that this team had been practicing and playing together all throughout the summer.
MELAS-Hell of a point Skeeter, hell of a point.
SKEETS-Could you not?
MELAS-When did they get into Portland? They got altogether earliest of any team in the league, right?
SKEETS-Maybe May.
MELAS-Yeah, May. Early June. It was frickin' early.
SKEETS-It was early. It was early.
MELAS-And they looked frickin' good.
SKEETS-Yeah.

They go on about Portland for a while longer.It's nice to have NBA people talking about the team again because of good basketball reasons. Oh it's nice.