Saturday, January 20, 2007

Comparing a few Quarterbacks

So my friend Mark wrote this. I'm responding with this:


PASSATTCOMPYARDTDINTrank





Young41492667331242321071





Manning48903131375862751392





Brady3064189621564147783





Marino83584967613614202524





Favre82245021575004142735





Fouts56043297430402542426





Elway72504123514753002267


















RUSHATTSACKYARDTDFUMrank





Young722358423943681





Manning26917070113457





Brady2391824353596





Marino3012708791104





Favre5264241774131383





Fouts224
47613
5





Elway7745163407331372




















valueATTrank







Young
710341491







Manning
492743334







Brady
161425487







Marino
675283582







Favre
267276126







Fouts
501756043







Elway
315572505





















YARDTDINTATTAY/Arank





Young3312423210741497.3821





Manning3758627513948906.9702





Brady215641477830646.3724





Marino6136142025283586.4873





Favre5750041427382246.0017





Fouts4304025424256046.1905





Elway5147530022672506.1116



















RWRLR%PWPLW%projR%projW%rankWrank

Young78250.757860.7180.6850.66724

Manning92520.639560.614

48

Brady70240.7451210.783

12

Marino131850.6068100.5830.6170.594612

Favre139850.6211190.6100.6200.607510

Fouts


340.429

714

Elway91480.6551480.6500.593
36




rank sumfinal rank









Young81









Manning233









Brady222









Marino254









Favre316









Fouts337









Elway265


There are a few things that I need to explain. The top chart shows QB passer ratings and the components of that rating.

The second chart shows a QB rushing rating that I built off of the passer rating and the components of that rating.

The third chart shows a QB value that was developed by Chase Stuart. The explanation for this value can be found here.

The fourth chart shows the adjusted yards per attempt for each QB.

The fifth chart shows the regular season winning percentage, playoff winning percentage, and weighted total winning percentage for each QB. I came up with this myself, and each playoff game is worth twice as much as each regular season game. For the older quarterbacks there was some missing info, so I had to project what the starting record for them would have been in these games. For Steve Young it doesn't include the 40 games he started from 1985-1991, 19 of those with Tampa Bay and 21 of them with San Francisco. For Dan Marino it doesn't include the 26 games he started in 1983, 1987, and 1993. For Brett Favre it doesn't include the 13 games he started in 1992. For John Elway it doesn't include the 92 games he started in 1983, 1984, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1992. For all of these missing games I projected how they most likely did based on their team's winning percentage and their history.

The sixth chart shows combines the results of all the other ones. In each chart I rank the quarterbacks. For the last chart I found the sum and the ranked each one, from lowest to highest point total (like in golf). Each category was worth one point, except the winning percentage chart, for which I made it worth double. In the final tally, the best QB of all the ones Mark mentioned in his post is Steve Young. (This wasn't surprising to me, as the same Chase Stuart who came up with the value rankings has him listed as the best QB of all time here.) Young is followed by Tom Brady, then Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Dan Elway, Brett Favre, and Dan Fouts. (Although the Fouts info is really spotty, so who knows if he could have been ranked higher.)

Mark could certainly argue with the way I came up with my formulas, but based on the ones I used, all the talk of Brady being better than Manning is based on reality.

*PASS-passing stats
ATT-attempts
COMP-completions
YARD-yardage
TD-touchdowns
INT-interceptions
RUSH-rushing stats
FUM-total fumbles
AY/A-adjusted yards per attempt
RW-regular season wins
RL-regular season losses
R%-regular season winning percentage
PW-playoff wins
PL-playoff losses
P%-playoff winning percentage
W%-weighted winning percentage (each playoff game is worth two regular season games)
projR%-projected regular season winning percentage for those QBs with missing stats
projW%-
projected wighted winning percentage for those QBs with missing stats
Wrank-weighted rank, with winning percentage rank being worth twice as much as other ranks

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