Wednesday, December 06, 2006

My take on the rumors

I don't want to trade Zach Randolph. I've said that for a while. But during a break from working today I came up with two different scenarios that, while maybe not great, would be possible with some picks thrown in. These are based on what teams have been rumored to be interested in Randolph, what Portland wants/needs, and the cap situation. I used two different trade generators to figure them out, each of which has some cool features.

Here is the first trade I came up with at RealGM, and here it is with ESPN's trade machine. Rumors have been swirling that New Jersey might want Magloire and that Detroit could want Randolph, so I packaged them and ended up helping the Pistons...maybe. Team chemistry gets shot to hell here for the Pistons, and for the Nets, actually. This trade would never fly unless the Nets and Blazers both got first round picks from Detroit, which they do have. Even so, as much as this trade "works," there's no way it would happen. But it was fun to put together.

But think about this: the Pistons would be getting two players who want the offense to be about them, while giving up two guys who play their roles very well, even if the roles look different with Saunders than they did with Brown. The Nets would be getting tons of front court help, but giving up their best player to do so. They would most certainly insist on having the higher of the two first round picks, how ever that turns out. The Blazers would be handing the reigns over to LaMarcus and trading two guys starting big men for two back-up big men, but they bring in a clutch shooter who can help bring along that bevy of young guards. They would definitely need a that other first round pick. Again, I'm not saying this could ever go, but it was fun to think about. And I want to keep Zach, let me say that again.

The other one seemed more likely to me, but still not likely. Rumors have said that the Bulls would like to have Randolph if they can't get KG. Other rumors have Ray Allen wanting out of Seattle. Much talk has been made about the glut of small forwards in Chicago. I deal with all of those things in this trade, and get a different clutch shooter in Portland. Here is the RealGM version, and here is the ESPN trade machine version. In lots of ways this trade makes more sense to me. Seattle gets some front court help, at least in the short-run, in P.J. Brown, they get rid of Allen--if he does want out--but replace his contribution with a potential star in Deng and a proven bench scorer in Dixon. The Blazers end up with a great scorer in Allen and bring back a glue guy from last year's team, Kharapa, who might help with the weird small forward situation. The worst of this is really for Chicago, who would deserve a first round pick from Seattle in this deal. They would be handing the starting job to Nocioni, sticking with Hinrich-Gordon-Duhon in the back court, and relying on Zach for a lot of offense. I would not make this move if I were them. Then again, if they thought they were getting Seattle's high pick, and they believe that Nocioni can do the job...NO. Sorry, but if my friend Ek sees this he might throw up. Maybe I should work in a trade with the Hawks just so J-Lew doesn't feel left out.

Alright, I really do need to get to sleep now. And at the beginning I said something about these trades being "possible." I'm an idiot.


Ek said...

Actually, the only thing I don't like about it is the cap ramifications (since Deng has a bargain contract for a player of his calibur and Brown's deal is expiring). PJ was acquired at least partly because he's a good trading chip - he has a high expiring contract and is at least temporarily useful - and the Bulls have been missing inside scoring ever since they traded Curry. Although Skiles has handled having depth well, which is one of his strengths as a coach. It doesn't feel like there's a logjam with Nocioni and Deng, and they frequently play them together. And Deng is the best player in the NBA that never learned how to dribble. But it'd probably be worth it if the pick was coming - we'd have two high picks in a deep draft and Z-Bo, plus all of the current team except Deng. It's a thought.

Lew said...

Please workout a trade with my Hawks and the Blazers just for fun. Also, I love the way we are playing right now. After a poor effort and sound lost to Seattle, a come-from-behind win at Denver when you are down 17 at one point. Good stuff.

I like the deals, but isn't Z-bo young enough to keeping playing while the rest of the young pieces mature? Just wondering. I know he signed that huge extension that is just now kicking-in. I didn't love the extension at the time, but he's playing well. Why so quick to trade him (I know there are rumors but don't follow any team outside of the Hawks enough to know why)?