KP never does the deal we expect

Tomorrow morning this will be the surprise news around the league.

Blazers/Spurs (fourth quarter)

The Blazers start this quarter with 78 points, which is a pretty good total considering they've played three periods against the vaunted Spurs defense.

I don't really like the look of Batum's three point jumper, but I love that he doesn't hesitate to shoot it when he's open. It also doesn't hurt that we have good offensive rebounders who create second chance points. If only we could improve at the same thing on the defensive end.

Free throws had better not plague this team this year.

Something that won't plague this team – even though it did against the Lakers on opening day – is open jump shots. Channing Frye just hit another one. When Oden comes back healthy and opposing teams have to focus even more defensive energy on our interior, we should start raining in mid-range and long-range jumpers all over the place.

By extending Martell Webster today, the Blazers ensured that they won't have to deal with the cap-hold they would have had going into free agency next year. By signing Webster to that deal, they might have a) locked up a good young player for a decent price b) signed a guy to a reasonable deal that will make him more attractive as part of a trade c) simply made sure that the cap hold wouldn't affect them next year.

Channing Frye just went past Duncan and dunked it. He also seemed to giggle a little bit as he slid around Duncan, as if he knew that he got away with something.

I hate seeing Sergio get frustrated. A frustrated Sergio is an ineffective Sergio.

That pass by Tony Parker was really nice. I think the Blazers are going to get some starters back in the game now.

I thought that was decent defense by Przybilla on Duncan, but that call will always go Duncan's way.

Brandon Roy just got to the rim on Duncan. He has to hit his free throws, but I love that he can drive against anyone. And he nails the first. I love Brandon Roy. Both.

It looked like Duncan was complaining about the foul they just called against Przybilla. That's hilarious.

Brandon Roy just took Outlaw aside to do some coaching on the floor. What a great player and leader.

Again Roy takes the lane.

I like that Aldridge is willing to take the three pointer and can hit it, but I don't think he should take it when he has someone near him like that.

Brandon Roy does not play like a third year player, helping Przybilla tie up Duncan to force that jump ball.

A great point being made right now is that all of San Antonio's three pointers in the fourth quarter have come on kick outs from dribble penetration. Portland needs to make sure they learn to do that better.

Did I mention that LaMarcus Aldridge is the guy I consider the top scorer for this season.

This is a big defensive possession for Portland.

I love that McMillan is trusting Batum to be in at the end of this game.

We need a good play here.

Good defense to end the night for Portland. That was a lot of fun.

Best sign of the night:
Everybody's
Scared of
Portland
Now

Blazers/Spurs (first quarter)

I broke into some friends' house to watch the Blazers game tonight. Here are some thoughts while getting to see the game.

It looks like we decided to force the ball inside to Aldridge, something we should have done better in Los Angeles Tuesday night.

We look a lot more settled in this game than we did on opening night. Hopefully it was just the nerves. I wondered if it might have had to do with Oden and the pressure that comes with the hype, but I think it's more likely that the team is just more calm at home after working the kinks out in that big-time opener.

Speaking of being more comfortable, it looks like Frye is hitting his shot again.

Brandon Roy is so good.

They have been calling all sorts of off-ball fouls on Portland. Boo.

I LOVE Nicolas Batum. He just had a sweet offensive rebound and then got an assist on an Aldridge dunk.

RUDY! RUDY! RUDY! RUDY!

Sergio just drilled a three pointer. Beautiful.

Nearly the whole second unit is in, with Aldridge being the only starter still in the game.

The refs called another terrible foul against Portland. Boo.

Never mind. After watching it again, I have no idea if it was a good call or not. I won't whine just because it's against my team.

Rudy missed an open three to end the corner off several nice passes to swing the ball around really quickly.

Down 22-21 at the end of the first, but I really like what I saw.

Coming back soon

Double entendré? Yes please!

Sadly, my soccer team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention – unless it turns out that another league team did something illegal earlier in the year to disqualify themselves – which means that our season will be over after our game next Tuesday. I would love to make the playoffs, but I'm also excited to have a little more time to prepare for school and make sure that I'm taking care of all the school things that I've been letting slide a little bit. In addition, I'll be able to start posting more again, which is exciting. In fact one of the reason's it is exciting is that...

The NBA season is soooooo close now. Some more things that are coming back soon... ...Channing Frye at full strength
...Steve Blake at full strength
...Blazermania in absolutely full force
...Brandon Roy's habit of making other players (and executives) in this league look foolish
...Kevin Pritchard's habit of making everyone believe in his superiority as a GM to anyone else in pro sports
...the Larry O'Brien trophy to Portland (as I said back on November 2, 2008).

Pick and Roll? Yes, please.

This whole thing is okay, but the part that I posted it for starts around the 48 second mark. Greg Oden and Steve Blake do a pick and roll there that is beautiful. I laughed out loud with glee the first three times I watched it. In a row. There are several more videos where this came from at Casey's Center Court blog.

Maybe I could get this job

This whole article is great, but this section was my favorite. Maybe if we can't get the current Squatch, I could take the job and just run around up there shirtless. That'd be fantastic.

When it comes to the delicate art of slam dunking a basketball while being propelled by a trampoline, few do it better than Squatch. His skills are vast and his mascot abilities are graceful and energetic, yet still tactful and refined. He's everything Blaze is not. Plus he bears a strange resemblance to Teen Wolf, another mythical creature who is capable of grand performances on the basketball court. And if "Stiles" (or Channing Frye) wants him to surf atop a moving van, he'd totally do it.

While I'm no historian of mythological woodland creatures, I do believe with much conviction that the real Sasquatch is far more likely to lay claim to the plush Oregonian woods than he is the condos of Seattle's U-District, or, God forbid, the dusty wastelands of Oklahoma City. Just think what that dry air will do to Squatch's majestic mane of hair.

He belongs here.

From Ezra Ace Caraeff's article in the Portland Mercury, via TrueHoop.

More video of Greg Oden

The Oregonian does great stuff. Really great stuff, actually, about the Blazers. Here is the latest video installment on Greg Oden's rehab. (My favorite Blazer, Channing Frye, is also in this video. I love that guy.)

I really hope Channing Frye is a Blazer for life

His blog rules. He's hilarious. I like his game. He loves Portland as a city.

Did I mention that his blog rules? Really, go read the latest post.

Tale of the tape: Roy vs. Bryant (it's all about the defense)

Yesterday as I was sitting at It's a Grind with my brother, both of us reading our daily dose of NBA news and blogs, I started talking to him about a specific element of the Blazers win over the Lakers on Tuesday night. Specifically, I was working out an idea that came to me concerning the Roy-Bryant match up. In his Late Wednesday Mini-Bullets, Henry over at TrueHoop quoted Michael Jordan from an article Jack McCallum wrote about him in 1989. Have I mentioned that I love the new SI Vault? The gist of the quote from Jordan was that the best way to defend him was to make him play defense against a guard who had a physical offensive game. This tired him out and kept him from being as physical against them on the other end. When I read the quote it reminded me that Jordan was an exceptional defender who focused on that even more than scoring.

What does that have to do with Kobe? I was shocked as I watched the KCAL 9 broadcast here in LA that Roy could play as well offensively as he did against Bryant. Several times Roy broke Bryant down on the edge, beat another guy, and made an easy layup. Bryant didn't do that to Roy nearly as badly on the other end. By my count, four of Roy's eight field goals were layups.
One of his field goals was a three, one was a wide open 22-footer, one was an eight-foot jump shot early, and the other was a nine-foot runner in the fourth. Of his seven missed shots, five were jumpers from outside the key, including two three point misses. On the other hand, Kobe made 11 of 26 from the field. Twelve of his fifteen misses were jump shots from outside the key, including five failed three point attempts. Of the ones that he made, one was a dunk, two were layups, two were three-pointers, two were four foot running j's, one was an eight-footer, one was a 21-foot jumper, and two of his shots don't have a distance on the ESPN play-by-play. If you aren't already bored by reading what shots were taken, you might be wondering why it matters. I mean, Bryant scored 34 and Roy only had 23 – Kobe was 10-13 from the stripe while Roy was 6-8, showing a good effort by each of them getting inside.

As I thought about the ways Roy scored on Bryant compared with the ways Bryant scored on Roy – and, in fairness, Outlaw – I realized that Kobe was working a lot harder for his shots than Brandon was. Roy was taking the lane when it was given, shooting open jumpers when they presented themselves, and directing the flow of the offense. But Kobe was often taking the time to force his way into the lane, or else use some combination of moves to set up his beautiful turn-around jumper. This is where the difference between Bryant and Jordan (as evidenced in the aforementioned quote) really stuck out to me: Bryant could have shut Roy down. He's that good of a defender. But instead, he spent more energy on making sure he got his points. And yes, he scored more than Roy. But I looked at the assists for each and what those assists led to, and it tells the tale that Roy actually contributed to more offensive production than Bryant did.

Bryant had five assists. Three of them were to Lamar Odom for layups (two) or dunks (one). The other two assists were from hitting Radmanovic outside for the three. That means Bryant scored 34 and was directly responsible for getting his teammates the ball for 12 more. In total, I'll say that Kobe created 46 of the Lakers' 103 points. Roy had a career-high tying 12 assists. Four of those set up three-point field goals, and the other eight went to guys making mid-range jumpers or layups. So Roy scored 23 of his own points, and was directly responsible for getting his teammates the ball for 28 more. In total, I'll say that Brandon created 51 of the Blazers' 112 points. Of course this doesn't take into account the fact that the Blazers might have given up points to the Lakers because of the way they defended Bryant, plays on which he got no statistical credit. I wouldn't suggest that those sorts of plays would be even with the same type for Roy on the Lakers' side, but I don't think they would be too far off, either, and since they are immeasurable I really can't speak to them.

Being the type of defender that Kobe Bryant is, I believe he had the ability not only to stop Roy from scoring 23, but from directly creating as much as he did for teammates. Certainly some of the blame must go to other LA defenders, but when you're as talented and highly regarded as Kobe is, you need to shut down the opposition. If Kobe had decided to make Roy work harder for his offense, he might have scored a few less points. But I really think that the reduction in Roy's contribution would have been far more significant. Yeah, there were many other factors in the game, but for the Lakers to win in the playoffs it's Kobe's defense that needs to be at its best, not his offense. His offense will take care of itself.

One last note: I realize that the Lakers were without any real low-post presence on defense, which also contributed to Roy's ability to drive. But the Blazers have been without their chosen low-post presence – Oden – all season, and were without their next best option – Joel Przybilla, thanks to a broken hand – in this one. That left the über-tough Channing Frye as the center. I love me some Channing, but he is not my first (or second or third or fourth) choice for a tough inside presence on defense.

Still not finished

Okay, tons of thanks to Lewis for leading into this post: why would Portland do this? Won't this hinder the growth of the team together? What will Nash have in the tank in a few years?

Before I try to answer those questions, I need to fix one thing from the post yesterday. I left off a really important piece of the Suns roster in Grant Hill. I don't know how I did that. There are a few other guys on the roster too, but I think he was the only really important one I left off my made up two-deep depth chart. I was thinking that maybe Hill gets included in the deal, perhaps with Martell Webster coming over from Portland.

I don't know if that makes it more likely for Phoenix to do the deal, but I think it might because my whole idea is that they'd be blowing things up and trying to get younger and build from the ground up. Okay, whether or not that helps, here are the answers to those other questions.

1. Why does Portland do this?

Portland has the youngest team in the league right now. There was talk that Atlanta was younger after the trade for Bibby, but I think I saw somewhere else that this isn't true. Portland would be trading away three young players. One of whom is finally showing how much he can grow into his potential. One of whom was great as a rookie, but has been a little disappointing since then. And one of whom I love, but just isn't getting his chance with Portland and still needs more time to make mistakes and grow up. The other guy Portland would be trading is one of their few veterans, even though he isn't really that old. Portland would be willing to give up these guys because they'd be making a huge upgrade at the one position that's really a gigantic question still. Right now Blake is one of the main guys who brings veteran leadership, and Nash would do that to a far greater extent.


2. Won't this hinder the growth of the team together?

I think this would actually help the growth of the team. One of the problems with the inconsistency at point has been that we can't develop the team the way we want. This is supposed to become a great running team, but Jarrett Jack has trouble running the break, McMillan doesn't trust Sergio Rodriguez very much, and Blake, while good, still isn't as good as what we hope Sergio will be. The team is still built around Roy, Aldridge, and Oden, who will all be less than 24 next year. That's still young and still plenty of room to grow. In addition, we have another PG of the future stashed in Finland. Petteri Koponen has a ton of potential, much like Rodriguez, but would need a lot of time to develop. Having Nash on the team to help him develop in practice would be huge, and since Sergio is still just a great prospect, it makes sense to me to take the risk on another great prospect, especially if he could learn from Nash.

Also, this gives Jarrett Jack more job security as the back up point guard, which is good because many consider him the soul of this team to Brandon Roy's heart. This also frees up room for McRoberts to get a chance, Joel Freeland to come over – perhaps – and get his chance, and pairs down the rotation a little better. Again, even though this would make the team a lot older, we'd really only have two old guys: Nash and Raef LaFrentz. We'd have two seasoned veterans: Joel Przybilla and James Jones. The rest of the guys on the team would still be either young studs/role players (Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Fernandez, and Jack) or prospects with huge upside (Koponen, McRoberts, and Freeland). I left out Darius Miles, but who knows what that guy might do.


3. How much will Nash have left in the tank in a few years?

I actually don't think it really matters how much he'd have left for a few years, because his main role would be to run the team next season and as much of the one after as he could, and then he can hand the reigns to Koponen, who will have hopefully already stepped into the role of PG and team leader. Maybe Nash has three good years left, maybe he only has two, at the worst maybe he has just one. But bringing him over would help everyone else develop and would give Koponen a chance to become the sort of point guard who could run a championship team.

Again, I don;'t think the Suns would ever make this deal. I also don't know if Pritchard would do it. But, as much as I'd like to see this team grow into a dynasty as-is, I think this sort of move – and specifically this move – could be the thing that helps us make the jump from up-and-comer to championship contender in only one off season.

I think there's probably more to figure out, but that's as much as I've gotten so far.

One last thing: Nash's salary is so reasonable that this would hardly have an effect on our upcoming cap space, if we still felt the need to find the last piece at small forward.

An unfinished idea

Last night as I was talking to my brother I was inspired to begin thinking about a deal. I don't know what inspired me, especially since the Blazers were still losing to the Suns badly at that point. Maybe I was just thinking about the Suns because of the game, and realizing that their experiment is about to fail. Their window is about to close. They're going to need to rebuild. That means they'll need good picks and good young players, two things Portland has. So, if the window really does close for the Suns after this season, why not blow it up for real. That would mean trading away an old guy before all his value is gone. Of course I mean Steve Nash, who should never be traded. Also, I know that this is a homer deal. But I can see some things about it that could help Phoenix. Again, this is just the first effort, but what if the Suns received our first round picks in 2008 and 2010. The pick in 2010 probably won't be great, but this year we're a near lock for the lottery again, and they get the Hawks pick, which also looks like it'll be in the lottery because the 76ers are playing so well. In addition to the two picks, we give them three young guys who could flourish in the D'Antoni system: Travis Outlaw (Shawn Marion with a little less defense, more athleticism, and a prettier shot), Sergio Rodgriguez (a guy they drafted and should have kept, sort of like what they did with Nash), and Channing Frye (a decent big who can run some and hit the mid-range jumper pretty well, plus he'd be going back home to Arizona). The Blazers could also throw Steve Blake into the deal to give a stop-gap point guard while they dump the reigns into Sergio's hands.

Again, I don't think this deal is an easy sell for Phoenix, because they'd be trading a two time MVP for a platter of young guys, two of which are still pretty unproven. But it would give them this lineup to build around:

Also, I really haven't finished thinking this through. It might take getting another asset from Portland and the Blazers getting another player from Phoenix. And I left out the backup shooting guard, because I think the interchangeability of Barbosa and Bell, along with the interchangeability of Outlaw, Frye, and Diaw would take away the need for a backup shooting guard. Then again, with two lotter picks this year they could end up with a player like Mayo or Westbrook or Collison or somebody else who could help with that. Also, the potential for the Suns to take one guy like that and Kevin Love – a center who can start the break as well as anyone in the country – could be really intriguing. Love could end up starting alongside Stoudamire after Shaq's body finally stops working.

Tomorrow I'll try to write more about why I'd actually love to do this deal from Portland's standpoint. One last time: I know that Phoenix wouldn't do this. I know. I just wanted to try it.

Christmas Day running diary

5:05 pm Here I am, sitting in the house I helped my parents build, on Christmas day, getting ready to watch the first Blazer game of this win streak. I just said “this” win streak, because I believe that the streak will continue tonight.

5:08 pm I love the stat they just showed. Portland is the best team on Christmas day all-time, and Seattle is the worst on Christmas all-time. While I was typing that the Blazers got three offensive rebounds and finally put their first points up.

5:10 pm Beautiful steal by Martell. It’s good to see him working hard like that. Now he needs to get both of these free throws. Nope, one-of-two. We need to start pushing it inside and stop relying on our poor jump shooting.

5:12 pm Just after I said that, Roy hit Przybilla for a nice dunk. It’s good to see the vanilla thrilla throwing it down like that.

5:15 pm Steve Blake is getting a lot of open looks and needs to start hitting those shots. And now the Blazers have given up the lead. They need to calm down a little bit.

5:16 pm Boom. Webster drills a three pointer off a kick out from Roy.

5:19 pm I just checked the Blazer station, but for some reason the picture n my parents’ new TV is way better on ESPN, so I’ll continue listening to these announcers instead of the Blazers guys.

5:21 pm Great pass by Channing Frye, good finish by Roy, but he can’t get the and-one. Fortunately the Sonics are terrible at rebounding and throw it out of bounds.

5:23 pm Jarrett Jack doing what he does well, driving to the hoop. And wow, Wally Szczerbiak just hit another three pointer. Thankfully Frye made a jumper. Other than the opening jitters, this has been better game than the Miami-Cleveland game this morning. That game was terrible. I expected that it would be, but still. Eww. The Lakers and Suns, on the other hand, played great basketball. That was fun to watch.

5:27 pm Did you see Roy juke Durant out of his shorts a few minutes ago? That was great. And then Brandn just rose up and put it through.

5:28 pm Sergio Rodriguez is looking good in his quick stint for Roy right now. El Mago making magic happen.

5:30 pm That first quarter wasn’t great, but 24 points for each team isn’t bad when we started so poorly.

5:32 pm Apparently there’s a new American Pie movie, and guess what: there are girls in it, and it’s about sex. Man, that sounds hilarious.

5:34 pm Jack just made another great drive. He is really good at that. And Travis Outlaw is great at shooting over anyone. He just elevated to drain that jumper.

5:36 pm WOW. Beautiful pass inside from Rodriguez to James Jones, and Jones THREW that down. As the announcers just noted, the second unit for this Portland team has been playing so well and they’re doing it again today.

5:38 pm That was a terrible call. They just called Jeff Green for the charge, but Channing Frye pushed him. Boo. Oh well, I’ll take it.

5:44 pm Jack has eight now, which is great, but Szczerbiak just hit another three.

5:45 pm Collison just completed the three point play to tie the game back up. This really does look like better basketball than the first game today.

5:48 pm Apparently Greg Oden had some sort of surgery on his knee before the season started. I also just found out that he’s supposed to be good. Man, just imagine what this team could be like with him back. (Oh, and Przybilla just made both free throws. He’s improved that aspect of his game so much.)

5:50 pm That was a terrible foul call. Przybilla played great defense on that, but they called him. Lame. The ball never lies, then Przybilla gets the rebound and gets fouled. That worked out.

5:53 pm Blake just missed another open jumper. Blech. Roy then comes back with a good drive-and-dish to Przybilla, but he was on the baseline. And now another terrible foul call when it should have been a travel.

5:57 pm Durant just made his first really pretty shot. That was nice. Of course, on his next play he traveled.

5:58 pm Blake finally hit a jumper. This one was behind the arc, where he has been shooting better than everywhere else on the floor.

6:00 pm Jarrett Jack is filling in nicely for Roy, who is in the locker room after getting hit with a Chris Wilcox elbow. We need to come out really strong in the second half.

6:02 pm At halftime we’re ahead by two, after having a pretty poor first half, so that’s not too bad.

6:06 pm Scott Van Pelt is a genius. “The Boston Three Party.” I love it. Although seeing Garnett, Pierce, and Allen do the Three Amigos salute was the best part of that commercial.

6:18 pm Red Bull is shameless. Geez. “Start with practice and work our way back to theory.” I’m sure that’s how my friend J-Lew studied biology in college.

6:21 pm Wow, Jon Barry just made two great jokes.

6:24 pm Ugh. This is a rough shooting game. R-O-U-G-H.

6:25 pm Jon Barry just made a joke about streaking and Will Ferrell in the movie Old School. This guy is culturally relevant.

6:26 pm Roy is starting to hit now. And there is LaMarcus Aldridge. Pretty basketball right there with that turnaround by LA.

6:30 pm There was a beautiful play by Roy and Przybilla, once again highlighting the progression of the big man’s offensive game this season.

6:31 pm FAST BREAK POINTS!! Portland has so much trouble getting those, it’s good whenever we can find some.

6:34 pm ESPN just showed a great stat: Portland didn’t have any field goals in the last five minutes, even though they just went up by ten. I think they had the wrong team there. Oh, and Roy is playing really well right now.

6:36 pm Brandon Roy. Brandon Roy. Brandon Roy. Brandon Roy. (I think he must have just heard that he didn’t win his third consecutive western conference player of the week. He has 11 points in the quarter.)

6:41 pm The Sonics just made their first field goal in 12 attempts. Portland has been playing pretty good defense. And there Channing Frye knocks down another jumper.

6:43 pm Kevin Durant, everybody! He just tripped over the ball and himself. No ceiling, right Bill Simmons?

6:44 pm Durant just absolutely swatted a runner by Jack. I change the tone of my last comment: now it’s slightly less smarmy.

6:47 pm Sloppy play right there by Jack on defense.

6:48 pm Shades of old Travis Outlaw on his last ill-advised jumper and poor defense/foul on a Jeff green lay-up.

6:50 pm The second unit didn’t look as good at the end of that quarter, but they’re still up by eight. Brandon Roy was so good during the third quarter, and that was great to see.

6:54 pm Nice steal by El Mago to start the fourth quarter.

6:57 pm The Sonics are shooting well again, which is tough for us.

6:58 pm I’m really excited to see Roy come in and take over the fourth quarter, but it’s also nice to see Channing continue to make those mid-range jumpers.

7:04 pm Channing Frye just nailed another jumper. That is soooo good to see.

7:08 pm Jarrett Jack just took us shopping. It was fine until one of the announcers said that Jack is a “single male addicted to retail.” Yikes.

7:12 pm The Blazers are taking far too long with the ball, and waiting until the end of the shot clock. It’s making for some pretty ugly basketball right now.

7:16 pm I really don’t like this “wired” thing the NBA is doing now. It doesn’t really seem to add any insight, and it’s mainly just annoying.

7:18 pm It’s nice to see Jack having another good game. The same for Przybilla. He has 16 rebounds. Once again the team is getting it done by having various people step up well.

7:21 pm Well, we didn’t play that well again today. It is exciting that we keep winning when we’re not playing that well.

7:23 pm Neil Everett just said that the Blazers may never lose again. I’ll end this on that note...(merry Christmas)