After Andre

I doubt that this deal would work after using up our cap space on Andre Miller, but here's something we could do once we sign him. This move is predicated on AK47's ability to be a point forward (something about which I'm not completely sure) and our unease with Bayless as the PG of the future. Also, this would assume that Rudy Fernandez gets a ton more run at the same time as Brandon Roy, hence bringing in someone who could perhaps play more of a point forward role. Maybe the Hedo idea was better than I first thought.



I'm not convinced I'd want to do this trade at all, just throwing it out there because of my unease with the Andre Miller deal.

The best course of action

Okay, now we can really get to it. If we were willing to overpay for Turkoglu, why not do this instead: overpay for Artest and steal him away from the Lakers. We'd accomplish three things at once.

1. Get a player who is older than we want and a problem for our offense, at too high a price.
2. Get a player who could help out on defense.
3. Screw the Lakers.

Of course I don't really want to do this, but it would be pretty funny. And Artest has changed his mind on things like this quicker than you can blink before. Look back at last year's free agent period if you don't remember.

What we should really do is look to Houston. As Dave said on Blazer's Edge early this morning:

1. Yao Ming is out indefinitely. Tracy McGrady is eternally questionable and maybe on his way out of town. That's a ton of scoring power out the window...the two main pillars of the franchise entering the year. Battier is an amazing complementary player, perfect alongside those guys. If they're gone Houston needs more firepower. All of a sudden Battier looks like a nice piece who doesn't fit anymore, kind of like your beautiful sandcastle after the tide has come in. It's under that flood somewhere but you're not getting much use out of it anymore.

2. Just today, as reported below, Ron Artest committed to the L*kers while Trevor Ariza reportedly agreed to join the Rockets. On the surface this appears to make Battier more valuable to Houston, as the guy he formed a battery with is gone. But Ariza is, in many ways, a younger, cheaper Battier. They could use a contrast there.

So here's what we do: we get both our guys, right now. Three team deal that uses our cap spaces, solves the problem that Houston will have with lack of offense and no back up (or starter, perhaps) at center, and helps another team save money in the long run.

Portland sends out four good players; four players that I really like. Jerryd Bayless, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw, and Joel Przybilla. Przy and Trout go to Houston to help fill some empty spots there. But that's not enough for Houston to do it unless we help them dump T-Mac for something now. So we bring in a team that will love T-Mac's expiring deal if it can get rid of one of it's albatrosses. So McGrady goes to the Hornets, along with Martell Webster and Jerryd Bayless. The Hornets, in order to do this, have to give up the prize of the whole trade. Chris Paul comes to Portland, but they get to shed Peja Stojakavic and Morris Peterson, sending both of them to Houston. Both of those guys could potentially help with the offense of the Rockets and play shooting guard or small forward, which would help a team that just lost all three of their 2/3 type players from the year before.

In this deal New Orleans would immediately get four million in cap relief, most likely keeping them out of the luxury tax. They would get even more relief at the end of the season when McGrady's contract expires. Also, they get two young guys to build with. I know that I value Webster more highly than others, so I won't say much about him. But I think that Bayless is going to be pretty amazing, and I think a lot of other people would agree with me. Houston gets some offense to replace the loss of Artest and McGrady (who was already lost anyway), and now doesn't have the old version of Ariza to go with the new version they just signed. They also get a very good NBA center (and one that I really don't want to trade) in Joel Przybilla. He'd be the perfect back up to Yao, but for the time being he'd be a decent starter alongside Scola. I know they might not like this deal very much for the contracts they get, so we might have to add a piece to make it happen. This would be my initial offer. If the Rockets instead insisted on a guy that seems more like what they'd want in James Posey, that would work. He again fits more of the Battier/Ariza role than Morris Peterson, who on his best days is closer to a poor man's version of McGrady. Also, if either team insisted on Rudy Fernandez to make this deal go through, the Blazers could add him. That would be one more guy I really don't want to give up, but for these two guys – who I believe would put us in championship contention immediately – it would be worth it. The Blazers would then need to sign someone like Antonio McDyess or Chris Anderson at the mid-level exception to back up Oden. Actually, Anderson would fit well with Portland then, since he is similar to Przybilla but not quite as productive.

Here's how the rosters would most likely look for the three teams if they did this deal:

Houston

• PG Aaron Brooks/Kyle Lowry
• SG (Rudy Fernandez)/Morris Peterson or James Posey/Brent Barry
• SF Trevor Ariza/Travis Outlaw/Peja Stojakovic/James White/Chase Budinger
  
• PF Luis Scola/Chuck Hayes/Carl Landry
• C You Ming/Joel Przybilla/Joey Dorsey/Brian Cook

That would be if they insisted on Rudy, and I'm sure that there may be a difference in the way that line up would look, perhaps with Ariza starting at the two – if Rudy went to New Orleans – and Outlaw at the three. Or with Yao hurt, maybe they go small with Scola starting at center, Przybilla still coming in off the bench, Outlaw at power forward and Ariza at small.

New Orleans

• PG Jerryd Bayless/Darren Collison/Antonio Daniels
• SG (Rudy Fernandez)/Rasual Butler/Morris Peterson (if not traded)/Devin Brown/Marcus Thornton
  
• SF Martell Webster/James Posey (if not traded)/Tracy McGrady (injured)
• PF David West/Julian Wright (probably also playing some SF)
• C Tyson Chandler/Hilton Armstrong

Again, if the Hornets insisted on Rudy being included for them to make the deal (instead of the Rockets or no one) he would probably be their starting shooting guard. Depending on which of MoPete and Posey they traded would effect how that depth chart looks, but probably not how the guy would get played. They would still be thin in the front court, but that's the case currently as well. If by some miracle T-Mac got healthy before the end of next year he would give them some offense, too. Again, though, this deal for them is about saving money at a time when the franchise is in big trouble.

Portland

• PG Chris Paul/Steve Blake/Patty Mills
• SG Brandon Roy/Rudy Fernandez (if not traded)
• SF Shane Battier/Nicolas Batum/Victor Claver
• PF LaMarcus Aldridge/Jeff Pendergraph/Dante Cunningham/Joel Freeland
• C Greg Oden/Chris Anderson

As you can see, making this trade would force us to get a back up big in free agency, and would probably force us to bring over some of our guys stashed in Europe before we really want. But even so, it's not hard to convince anyone that we get the best in this deal (which is why it wouldn't happen). If we could somehow keep Rudy, then the guard rotation of him with Roy and Paul would be amazing. But even if we couldn't, a three guard rotation with those two and Steve Blake is pretty good. And the learning that would happen as Batum – and then Claver – played with Battier would be amazing. That starting line up is also quite formidable defensively. In addition, if we could actually sign Anderson then we would keep a rotation similar to the one we are probably moving toward anyway, with one of those three back up PFs being relied on for a little bit of offense when Anderson is in the game. Or we just play him and LaMarcus or him and Greg together.

So there it is, that's the panic move that needs to happen as soon as the new salary cap is announced on July 8, since Hedo didn't pan out. I'm calling dynasty (and tons of luxury tax) in the very near future.

To see all the possible deals that work, click the corresponding link:
Without Rudy:
Posey to Houston
MoPete to Houston

With Rudy to New Orleans:
Posey to Houston
MoPete to Houston

With Rudy to Houston:
Posey to Houston
MoPete to Houston

It looked like this

Blazers/Spurs (first quarter)

I broke into some friends' house to watch the Blazers game tonight. Here are some thoughts while getting to see the game.

It looks like we decided to force the ball inside to Aldridge, something we should have done better in Los Angeles Tuesday night.

We look a lot more settled in this game than we did on opening night. Hopefully it was just the nerves. I wondered if it might have had to do with Oden and the pressure that comes with the hype, but I think it's more likely that the team is just more calm at home after working the kinks out in that big-time opener.

Speaking of being more comfortable, it looks like Frye is hitting his shot again.

Brandon Roy is so good.

They have been calling all sorts of off-ball fouls on Portland. Boo.

I LOVE Nicolas Batum. He just had a sweet offensive rebound and then got an assist on an Aldridge dunk.

RUDY! RUDY! RUDY! RUDY!

Sergio just drilled a three pointer. Beautiful.

Nearly the whole second unit is in, with Aldridge being the only starter still in the game.

The refs called another terrible foul against Portland. Boo.

Never mind. After watching it again, I have no idea if it was a good call or not. I won't whine just because it's against my team.

Rudy missed an open three to end the corner off several nice passes to swing the ball around really quickly.

Down 22-21 at the end of the first, but I really like what I saw.

Get excited

Rudy Fernandez

Rudy! Rudy! Rudy!

I was having a conversation at lunch today with my friend Mariano and mentioned how great the Lakers could be next year when they add Trevor Ariza and Andrew Bynum.

Then I realized that the Blazers will be adding guys who will probably be better than those two. Need proof? Watch.

No April Fool

Last night I finished watching Black Magic, the ESPN show about many of the Black players who helped integrate basketball in this country. It was a great show, and today I bought the soundtrack on iTunes because that was such a great part of the show. Actually, I bought the show on iTunes as well. So Apple made some money off of that show, at least from me. I'm thinking about using the show in class, if I can get a projector, as a reward at the end some days. It would be somewhat relevant because it's about history and oppression and making change. It's also just good, and I've reached the point where it seems that I'm mailing it in a little bit.

Speaking of that, my grades for third quarter are due next Monday, and I am not excited about making sure I've represented the progress of each of my students. Ugh. I hate grades. Also, the accreditation committee is visiting beginning next Sunday, and I'm not really excited about that either. Then again, as my roommate Eric said, if the accreditation of the school comes down to how good I'm doing, then the school really is in bad shape and probably doesn't deserve to keep its accreditation. Not that I think the school will lose accreditation, and not that I'm planning on a poor showing by myself, but it was a nice thing to keep me from feeling too much pressure.

I think I might head to a bar or someplace that I could watch the two college games soon, although I could watch fuzzy versions of the game at home. That's a decision to make, although I should make it soon, since the first game will probably start before I finish this post.

Just a little Blazer news: Martell Webster is having some heart issues, which is scary. Jack Brown at Deceptively Quick had a good little post about it, especially the YouTube video he embedded that shows Martell torching the Jazz. Go there to watch the video, if not to read his take.

Rudy is "90% sure" he's coming next year. I think we knew that, but it's still good for him to say it. I found that here (of course that's a link to OregonLive – those guys are great).

Alright, I don't think I have anything else to say. Look at the top of the page for something new I added to the blog. It's great. Oh, and the title of this post had nothing to do with the post except that it's my first entry of April.

A Clipper sweep

The last two nights set a record for me this season: most back-to-back Blazer games watched this season. I nearly went to the game last night at the Staples Center, but decided that I didn't want to deal with downtown and the blue line that late the night before finally flying to Chicago.

I wish I would have been there, if only to see Joel Przybilla completely destroy the Clippers on the boards. Przybilla was fantastic, and he brought some offense too. It really did look like a preview of what Oden could do next year. Interested in seeing how he's doing? This article will lead you through it. Great stuff from Jason Quick, as always.

LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy were once again great in the same game. It was Aldridge's ninth straight game over 20 points. That's another great sign for next season. If he can play like this consistently next year, and Roy stays the steady presence he has been all year, this team will be so good. Add Oden and Rudy Fernandez (who, according to Pritchard, is coming over next year) to this team and it's even more exciting than I would have thought.

Another great sign from these two games – the last three, actually – is the point guard play of Steve Blake. His defense has been a little shaky, and his shooting has actually been a little down. But the way he led the offense and his assist to turnover ratio has been really great. He has had 23 assists and one turnover in the last three games. If he can keep doing that next year, and Sergio Rodriguez can make a leap this summer, I don't think we need a new point guard. I know, that's risky to say, but I think it might be true.

Alright, I'm going to get back to reading The Breaks of the Game while I wait for my flight to leave. Stupid snow in Chicago. Stupid.

How could I have forgotten?

Umm, I just watched the video that sits below this text. I'm sitting in a coffee shop, and I think people around me thought I was a little loopy because I was giggling like a little kid who has heard the best poop joke ever. Watch the video, then keep reading.


Somehow, as soon as Greg went down I forgot that he was on the team. In fact, somehow my mind just latched onto Taurean Green and Josh McRoberts as our only rookies this year. And technically they are. In my head I keep thinking about the value that we got out of the draft, because our two late picks are guys that should end up contributing at some point, even if that contribution is just making the team better by working hard in practice this year. But those aren't the only two guys we got in the draft. Nope. We also drafted Oden and Rudy Fernandez. Well, we actually traded for the rights to Fernandez, but I'm still considering that a draft pick. I don't know how many people remember this post, but I'll reference myself for fun:

Now for the reality check: as much as I was thinking about winning every game while reading the various accounts of the game, there's no way we'll even win more than 35 games this year. So that's what I want, along with some payback from the bouncing balls for us getting the fourth pick last year. Then we can still draft Oden and build on what happens this year...[then I put pictures up of what I thought would be the starting line up of the 2009 NBA champion Blazers]...
PG Sergio Rodriguez
SG Brandon Roy
SF Martell Webster
PF Zach Randolph
C Greg Oden

Once again I'm impressed with how well I predicted the season and the lottery on the opening day of the season last year. What I'm more impressed by, though, is that at the time I had no idea how good LaMarcus would be, and how soon he would be that good. I was always a big advocate for Randolph, especially because of the stories about how hard he worked. Henry Abbott of TrueHoop said this in June:

Scottie Pippen once told me that Randolph works harder than any teammate he has ever had.

I mean, that makes Zach a harder worker than, umm, Michael Jordan, right? At least in Scottie's opinion? Well, Nate McMillan was quoted in an article last week by Jason Quick of the Oregonian. Here's the whole section from Quick:

"I've never seen a starter in this league work like he does," McMillan said after a recent practice. "And it's every day. I mean look..."

McMillan pointed to Aldridge, who was shooting on the far side of the practice court, shirtless, his sweat-soaked jersey off to the side.

In that same article Quick included this piece:

And Bobby Medina, who is entering his 11th season as the Blazers' strength and conditioning coach, said Aldridge's work ethic in the weight room reminds him of former Blazers great Scottie Pippen, whose maniacal workout regime is legendary.

Let me use some logic here that I've been teaching my geometry students. If Scottie, who was known for how hard he worked, said that Zach worked harder than any teammate he'd ever had, and then Nate McMillan, who played in the NBA for a while and has coached a few years, said that he's never seen a starter in this league work like he does, then by the transitive property, McMillan must be suggesting that LaMarcus also works harder than a certain MJ. Throw in the fact that Medina compared LaMarcus' habits to Scottie, whose original statement set the table for this argument, and I think we can at least be certain that Aldridge is going to continue improving for a while.

Alright, I think that took me off subject for a second, so let's come back: I've been so focused on Aldridge, Przybilla, Roy, and Webster, that I nearly put Oden and Fernandez completely out of my mind. In that clip above this text we see Aldridge and Oden finding each other with really good passes. Sure, they don't finish very many of them. And sure, it was in summer league. But it was also within the first month that the two had played together. They were already playing like that and they'd only been together for less than a month. The reason that's really scary? The way the Blazers played against San Antonio on Tuesday and all the news from camp and the preseason have allowed me to focus on the team this year, instead of what they'll be when Oden gets back. That reminder of what they looked like with the two bigs together for just a second is the glimpse I need to get me absolutely excited again about next year. Regardless of a new draft pick, or some trade, or even another free agent signing, next year should bring the two best picks from this year's draft to the team. If Webster plays like this all season, Outlaw continues to be a great sixth man, Przybilla is consistent with his resurgence, and the expected guys step into the roles we envision for them next year, we only have one question mark in our nine man rotation next year. Seriously. We have a front court that includes Webster, Aldridge, and Oden in the starting unit, with Outlaw and Przybilla supplying relief off the bench. We have a great Ginobili-like sixth man in Rudy Fernandez, spelling our team leader SG/PG Brandon Roy. The only real question is who starts at point guard, and if it's Roy, then who ends up as the combo guard giving breaks to Roy and Fernandez. But PG is the position we still have perhaps the most potential. Now do you understand why I'm giddy? This team will surprise people for some wins this year. But next year? We won't surprise anyone, we'll just beat them anyway.

I just nearly giggled to myself again, that's how exciting this is.

If I end up back in Oregon anytime soon because I get sick of LA or teaching down here is just too much, I plan on making as many Blazer games as possible. In fact, if I end up in Portland, I'm going to get season tickets. Being there for the dynasty will be even more fun than writing about it is now. And writing about it now is pretty fun. I can't wait...fortunately, while I have to wait for that, I don't have to wait to see the NBA's youngest team come out hard against every team this year.

I'll end with a quote from the Basketball Jones podcast yesterday, as they spent most of the time they were talking about the Blazers/Spurs game focusing on Portland:

SKEETS-The Blazer specifically – you can really tell that this team had been practicing and playing together all throughout the summer.
MELAS-Hell of a point Skeeter, hell of a point.
SKEETS-Could you not?
MELAS-When did they get into Portland? They got altogether earliest of any team in the league, right?
SKEETS-Maybe May.
MELAS-Yeah, May. Early June. It was frickin' early.
SKEETS-It was early. It was early.
MELAS-And they looked frickin' good.
SKEETS-Yeah.

They go on about Portland for a while longer.It's nice to have NBA people talking about the team again because of good basketball reasons. Oh it's nice.