Thursday, May 28, 2009

No Kidding

I've talked myself into Jason Kidd this summer. Why wouldn't he take a little less money for a two year deal to be the starting point guard on a great young team? He was actually pretty good again this year on offense, and played better defense than he's played for a while. The biggest reason I would have been against it was that he isn't a very good shooter, but his true-shooting percentage – which takes into account twos, threes, and free throws – was the highest it's been in his career, at .550. And his effective field goal percentage – which only looks at twos and threes and values threes more highly because they're worth more – was .522, also the highest of his career (by a LOT!). If he could do that in an offense with no real low-post presence, just other threats to shoot, I think he could be even better with Roy, Aldridge, and Oden. Also, his usage percentage was at the lowest of his career, meaning he actually had the ball less than he has in the past. It was a significant drop, too, so that it wouldn't be a huge adjustment to be the fourth option on offense in Portland. In fact, he's probably a pretty great fourth option at this point. He still averaged 9 points, 8.7 assists, and 6.2 rebounds per game this year. Oh yeah, he also averaged the fewest turnovers per game for his career. That probably has something to do with the usage percentage, but that's still pretty good.

So yeah, I've talked myself into Kidd, perhaps even over Nash.

We could then either trade Blake as part of a deal and develop one of the two young PGs, or we could keep him as the solid back up and move some of the potential. Of course, that's only if we decide to make a move. But if we sign a PG we MUST do something with at least one of the other three already on the roster.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

I keep telling you guys he's not a bust

I wrote this on the Kay House wall on facebook, but I liked it so decided to share it hear. So the few people that might still read this blog – which is my fault, since I have hardly written anything in the last few months – will have already read it on that wall. Thanks anyway, J-Lew and Ek.

Greg Oden is not yet what I hope he will be. But I'm not that unhappy with what he was this year, and here are a few reasons.

1. It was his rookie season.
2. He was coming off micro-fracture surgery, and then had to do come back from that flukey foot thing and the chip in his knee later.
3. Not only did refs not give him the benefit of the doubt, they seemed to target him. (I'm not arguing he didn't make plenty of dumb fouls. But I was happy to hear some national media members complain about some of the calls against him in the playoffs, if only to give a little bit of perspective beyond the many Blazer fans I read.) (And the double negative was on purpose.)
4. He was being worked into an offense that is clearly built around two other guys, and has been working that way for the last two years.

Those reasons helped me take a disappointing season in stride. But here are some numbers to keep in mind, though. Here is where all the stat-heads I read have an influence. As Kelly Dwyer at Ball Don't Lie said, "Ignore pace-adjusted stats at your own peril, lest you think Stephen Jackson had a better year than Paul Pierce, or that Chris Duhon had a better season than Jason Kidd. Without pace adjustment, both Pierce and Kidd come out a step slow, and that isn't fair. Nor would it be correct." So let's compare a rookie Dwight Howard – yes, him – to a rookie Greg Oden. (Thanks to Basketball-Reference.com for making this easy.)

Sure, Dwight averaged 12 and 10 for the season. Which is awesome. But he was also the only big man on that Magic team. And while there were other scoring options, that Magic team was third in the league in pace. Oden only averaged 8.9 and 7 this year, but that's on a team with one of the top three shooting guards in the league (go ahead, argue that one) that was lost in the league in pace.

In addition, because of the aforementioned foul trouble, Oden was doing that in 21.5 minutes per game instead of 32.6.

So let's look at some of the advanced stats. The key ones for this battle are PER, rebounding percentages, blocked shot percentage, and shooting percentages. We can't really look at stats to tell us about defense, but you all know by instinct that Howard was a better defender as a rookie was than Oden was this year. That's probably true, but not by as much as you think.

To the numbers: both had PERs above the NBA average, Oden at 18.1 and Howard at 17.2. Those aren't bad, especially considering that PER favors offense because it's easier to measure. Both had okay shooting percentages. In true shooting %, which factors 2s, 3s, and FTs, Oden was slightly better at .599 while Howard was .571. In overall FG% Oden was also slightly better, hitting .564 while Howard was .520.

The block percentage (which is just the percentage of shots blocked by the player while on the floor) was really close, with Oden barely beating Howard 4.2% to 3.6%.

At this point I could say, "see, Oden compares favorably to a rookie Dwight Howard." And I don't think that would be wrong. In fact, I think Oden's offensive game is at about the same level as Howard's is RIGHT NOW. They both have that hideous hook shot. Oden isn't as good at just dunking whenever he wants, but every once in a while he remembers that he can. When you factor these numbers out to averages per 36 minutes, Oden actually wins in nearly every category. I know that we can't because of the fouls, I just wanted to repeat that their production per minute was actually quite similar.

I'm not stopping with that, though, because there's a much better stat. The rebounding percentages tell the story pretty well. I'm part of the group that has nothing but praise for Howard's prowess as a rebounder...

But Oden was a much better rebounder as a rookie than Howard was. In fact, Oden was almost as good a rebounder as Howard was THIS YEAR. Rebounding percentage measures the percent of available rebounds a player grabbed while on the floor. In his rookie year, Howard had an offensive rebounding % of 12.2, a defensive rebounding % of 22.2, and a total rebounding % of 17.3. Those are great numbers. He hasn't really improved that much, either. As TSG says, rebounding doesn't really change. This year Howard had an ORB% of 13.8, a DRB% of 29.5, and a TRB% of 21.8.

This year, as a rookie, Oden had an ORB% of 15.7 (best in the league), a DRB% of 24.5 (better than Howard as a rookie), and a TRB% of 20.

Since he never quite made his top shape after dealing with all the injuries this year, I fully expect that to help with his foot movement and a few of the dumb fouls. I also expect refs to give him a little more credit in the coming years, which will lower that foul number a little more.

As he does and his game improves (or even stays mainly the same), I still think that was the right pick. He is a game changing center like Howard.

And to the common claim that Oden will never really recover from his leg injuries, I point to Big Z. While Ilgauskas didn't have leg problems exactly – they were foot problems – he has gone on to play a pretty good career, playing no fewer than 62 games in any of the last eight years. And he's bigger than Oden.

Monday, April 20, 2009

More to like about Batum

I hate pulling this much from someone else's work, but the whole thing is so good. Remember that New York Times article about Battier from a few months ago (which I linked to here)? Well, one of the things it talked about was Battier combing the a book full of tendencies and percentages before games. I know that this story about Batum doesn't say exactly the same thing, but it might only be a short matter of time until the coaches are putting together the same sort of book for Nicolas. And this kid is only 20. Crazy. Read the full article here. It's just one more in a series of the best beat work in the league by Jason Quick.

The walking basketball encyclopedia

One thing that wasn't different during pregame was rookie Nicolas Batum, and his ritual of reading the game notes at his locker.

The game notes are a stapled pack of statistics, player bios, team trends, records, etc., which are compiled for the benefit of reporters. However, in the Blazers locker room, a small stack is always present on the back counter, and Batum is the only player I have ever seen look at them.

"Every game,'' he says.

I first noticed this early in the season, in Detroit. At the time, I thought it was because Batum was bored and was having trouble mingling with his new teammates. The game notes, I figured, became his pregame buddy.

But as I'm finding out more and more, there's quite a personality and quite a sharp mind behind the docile looks of this Frenchman. He becomes more and more interesting to me everyday.

Turns out, the 20-year-old Batum likes studying the game notes for two reasons: To know everything about his opponent, and to satisfy his curiosity about various players' career highs, which he can recite on cue.

"Did you know Shaq had 29 rebounds and 15 blocks - in the same game,'' Batum offers, unsolicited. "Same game!''

He then flips a page and directs my eyes to Rockets center Dikembe Mutombo.

"Mutombo - 31 boards, 12 blocks,'' Batum says, using his index finger.

Of course, the main reason he scours the notes is to study the man he will guard. That's why he flips the pages back to Ron Artest. He aligns Artest's bio in the game notes with the page on Artest from the Blazers' scouting report.

"I just want to know who I guard,'' Batum says. "I don't want to be surprised by anything.''

I remark that Artest is a big man.

"Two sixty,'' Batum says immediately, lifting the game notes to show the scouting report page, which shows the height and weight of Artest. "I'm 220.''

We study the scouting report page together. Under Artest's height and weight, it informs that he is right handed.

"See here,'' Batum says, placing his finger on "right handed". "It says that, but he goes left all the time.''

Batum then points out two statistic lines. One has his season averages. The next has his averages against the Blazers. Proudly, Batum points out that Artest's averages against the Blazers are lower than his season averages, including points (17.1 to 15.0) and field goal percentage (41.7 to 36.4).

As I write these down, Batum has returned to the game notes, and Artest's bio, where it lists all his career highs.

"Eight steals. Four times,'' he says, shaking his head.

As I get up to head into McMillan's office, from behind I can hear Batum has found another gem.

"McGrady, 62 points ...''

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Playoff basketball

I didn't get to watch the destruction of the Suns the other night, nor did I see the demolition of the Grizzlies on Saturday. But thanks to nba.com running a promotion for two-day free broadband league pass I did watch most of tonight's decapitation of Utah. Decapitation because they lost their head (or heads, depending on what you think about Boozer and Sloan – who both got kicked out). The game was fun to watch. Our defense once again looked pretty good, with nice movement and help from the weak side. And our offense is a thing of beauty. I mentioned as the season started that I thought this team could be like the championship team, a young group who moves the ball well and knows how to score. As we get closer to the playoffs these guys are doing that with consistency, and it's a great sign of what's coming down the road. I know I've mentioned Nicolas Batum before, but I can't get enough of that guy. He's going to be great. And I still love Sergio Rodriguez. I'm ecstatic that he got back into the rotation and has been playing well. Get excited for playoff basketball coming back to Oregon.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

MaleBlazer? I suppose.

Hilarious quote from "The Optimist."
People who know and accept me for who I am know that, earlier this season, I came out of the closet as a “MaleBlazer.” Although I bleed Wine and Gold, I have a crush on the Portland Trailblazers organization. I always have: back to the days of watching old school Blazers like Bill Walton and Greg Oden when I was a little kid.
Re-read that and don't miss his subtle humor at the very end. Nice.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Trade dead(line)

I know I see everything through rose (garden) colored glasses, but I'm pretty relieved that we didn't make a deal. I like Caron Butler. I enjoy Gerald Wallace. I think Richard Jefferson is swell. But I believe in Martell Webster. We weren't going to get a guy who fit any better than what we have, and I believe we're still a playoff team this year. I've been saying since the preseason that I think Steve Blake is a great leader at point guard for this franchise, and his return last night said the same thing. I think Sergio is growing. I believe in the potential of Jerryd Bayless. I love Nicolas Batum. L-O-V-E him.

What is funniest to me is not how much some Blazers fans are complaining. That I understand, even if I disagree. I sometimes wanted to see the "big move" that would "put us over the top." What is funny is listening to the analysts, i.e. Jamal Mashburn, say that we were the big losers. That has been said about Portland nearly every draft, trade deadline, and off season for the last few years. I really do trust Kevin Pritchard, and I like that we continue to do the things we think are best even if it goes against what a lot of people think should happen. The one trade we made was a nice little deal to save some money and give us another trade chip for this summer. Think about this: when LaFrentz comes off the books this summer, not only will we have the potential to sign a free agent, but we'll be able to trade for much bigger salaries if we want. And it doesn't look like the economy is going to be a ton better by then, so there may be some huge names with big contracts that teams really want to move. So that's a bonus. Plus, we get to see this team develop for the rest of the season so that we can hopefully know for sure what we need. What does a healthy Martell bring? (Please get healthy, Martell.) Which back up point guard are we really sold on, or do we think that both are ready and that we no longer need Blake to be our steady hand? Is Travis Outlaw really what we want in a back up small forward/power forward? I think the late season playoff push, and the playoffs themselves, will give us a much better idea of what to do this off season. And as someone else said (Dave? Quick? Ben? I forget who it was. Casey?) Pritchard talked with everyone partly so he could find out what they want. He's now loaded with that information to go along with what they'll find out as the season plays out.

I'm excited to see this team of guys gel for the rest of the year and battle in the playoffs, and then I'm excited to see how the front office works in the off season to make it even better.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Monday, February 16, 2009

The most likely

It sounds like Portland could potentially actually get Caron Butler, and I think this is the trade that would most likely make that happen.

This one might be slightly more likely

Adding Peja into the mix and taking out Chandler and West might make this one actually slightly plausible, though probably not.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

One more for fun

I know that this could never happen, but it was fun to put together. The Blazers would also have to give the rights to Petteri Koponen and Joel Freeland to New Orleans and Washington respectively.

This was just for fun

Saturday, February 14, 2009

It looked like this

This is what we've been saying

While my brother and I disagree about who won the Rudy Gay-Shane Battier trade, we have both coveted Battier for a while. If it hadn't already been clear before I read this article, it is now: the Rockets won't trade him. This is great stuff by Michael Lewis, the guy who wrote Moneyball.

Monday, December 01, 2008

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Episode 1...A pretty crappy start

Here it is, the podcast Stephen and I did this morning before six. Hopefully these will start going up much earlier in the day.



Here it is if you want to open it in a different window.

Saturday, November 01, 2008

Friday, October 31, 2008

Blazers/Spurs (fourth quarter)

The Blazers start this quarter with 78 points, which is a pretty good total considering they've played three periods against the vaunted Spurs defense.

I don't really like the look of Batum's three point jumper, but I love that he doesn't hesitate to shoot it when he's open. It also doesn't hurt that we have good offensive rebounders who create second chance points. If only we could improve at the same thing on the defensive end.

Free throws had better not plague this team this year.

Something that won't plague this team – even though it did against the Lakers on opening day – is open jump shots. Channing Frye just hit another one. When Oden comes back healthy and opposing teams have to focus even more defensive energy on our interior, we should start raining in mid-range and long-range jumpers all over the place.

By extending Martell Webster today, the Blazers ensured that they won't have to deal with the cap-hold they would have had going into free agency next year. By signing Webster to that deal, they might have a) locked up a good young player for a decent price b) signed a guy to a reasonable deal that will make him more attractive as part of a trade c) simply made sure that the cap hold wouldn't affect them next year.

Channing Frye just went past Duncan and dunked it. He also seemed to giggle a little bit as he slid around Duncan, as if he knew that he got away with something.

I hate seeing Sergio get frustrated. A frustrated Sergio is an ineffective Sergio.

That pass by Tony Parker was really nice. I think the Blazers are going to get some starters back in the game now.

I thought that was decent defense by Przybilla on Duncan, but that call will always go Duncan's way.

Brandon Roy just got to the rim on Duncan. He has to hit his free throws, but I love that he can drive against anyone. And he nails the first. I love Brandon Roy. Both.

It looked like Duncan was complaining about the foul they just called against Przybilla. That's hilarious.

Brandon Roy just took Outlaw aside to do some coaching on the floor. What a great player and leader.

Again Roy takes the lane.

I like that Aldridge is willing to take the three pointer and can hit it, but I don't think he should take it when he has someone near him like that.

Brandon Roy does not play like a third year player, helping Przybilla tie up Duncan to force that jump ball.

A great point being made right now is that all of San Antonio's three pointers in the fourth quarter have come on kick outs from dribble penetration. Portland needs to make sure they learn to do that better.

Did I mention that LaMarcus Aldridge is the guy I consider the top scorer for this season.

This is a big defensive possession for Portland.

I love that McMillan is trusting Batum to be in at the end of this game.

We need a good play here.

Good defense to end the night for Portland. That was a lot of fun.

Best sign of the night:
Everybody's
Scared of
Portland
Now

Blazers/Spurs (third quarter)

Portland is still the second youngest team in the NBA this season. Crazy.

I've been telling people that Aldridge would eat the league up this year. It looks like he's working his way toward that.

Tim Duncan is a great basketball player.

The announcers are claiming that Kurt Thomas flopped on that last foul call against Aldridge, but I didn't complain about it.

Pretty ball movement from Roy and Aldridge to get Outlaw a nice corner three.

Well done by Lincoln on that commercial. I just don't think you can go wrong with a tasteful David Bowie cover.

Joel Przybilla making his money underneath on that one.

Pretty play by Aldridge and Oulaw that resulted in Duncan fouling Outlaw on his way up for a dunk. I think he looks much better in this game than he did on Tuesday, which is making it harder for me to stick to my position that he should be one of the ones to go if anyone must leave.

Jon Barry just claimed that Roy was doing "what he does best – puts the ball in the basket." I don't know if I agree with that statement. Roy does way too many things well to claim that scoring is the thing he does best.

Holy crap Nicolas Batum is a great basketball player.

Brandon Roy will take whatever he's given. And the Spurs are giving him a lot right now.

Fast break points. We love those. Nicolas Batum. We love him. Too bad I haven't been blogging, because I was talking about him like this even before I got to see him play.

Blazers/Spurs (second quarter)

I love Pop. That interview with him was classic.

This second unit is so much fun to watch on the offensive end. Rudy and Sergio are great together.

They just showed a replay of Batum's block of Duncan. This kid is brilliant.

BATUM IS UNREAL!!

Batum just got compared to Tayshaun Prince by Jon Barry. I've been saying it since the beginning of training camp.

Przybilla just got some love from the announcers, which is nice. He deserves it.

A miss by Batum, but it was a good jumper in the flow of the offense. Now that I'm actually getting to see him I like him as much as I thought I would.

Przybilla just earned a foul with good position, so I won't complain any more about what seems like one sided officiating.

Sergio just missed a three, but Rudy corralled the long offensive board. Sadly, LaMarcus missed another mid-range jumper. It'll come, but he's been missing a lot of them again tonight.

BATUM!!! (He picked up a loose ball, beat two Spur defenders, and then made the and-1 as he got fouled on the lay-in. Then he hit the free throw. Ridiculous.)

"This Batum guy is impressive." --a text I just received from J-Lew. I agree Lew, I agree completely.

It's good to see Aldridge getting to the line and hitting.

The only thing the announcers failed to mention when talking about why Travis Outlaw has improved so much statistically is that he's the Gatling gun. 1000 shots per minute.

Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge are so great.

A funny disparity between the Blazers tonight and the Blazers on Tuesday is how young we looked in LA and how mature we look tonight. This is the way we need to look if we're going to have a successful year.

If we keep playing zone, we need to make sure we don't get beaten when they swing the ball around. We just got beaten again by a wide open three point shooter for San Antonio.

Brandon Roy is my favorite Blazer ever.

(Okay, Sabonis is still number one. But that shot, the composure, the defense he displayed earlier...all those things are the reasons he is ahead of Clyde and Rasheed on the all-time list.)