I have to put it in writing

The Nuggets will beat the Lakers.

Reasons? I've got a few:

1. I hate the Lakers. That shapes everything I think. And I hate hearing my students talk about how good they are. Again, this shapes everything I think about this series.


2. Denver can play great defense. They did it enough times to be ranked 10th in defensive efficiency for the season, while being the first ranked team in pace. And that's pretty impressive because they're running a lot but still doing a good job of keeping teams from scoring a lot per 100 possessions. That still ends up being a lot of points, but shows some decent defense. The best example was that Seattle game when they won 168-116.


3. George Karl has been a good coach in the playoffs a few times. Three times, really. In 92-93 and 95-96 with Seattle, and in 2000-2001 with Milwaukee. Those teams were above .500 in the playoffs, but none of them won the finals. Still, if he can get everything together with those crazy guys, maybe it'll work.


4. While I don't think the Nuggets can do anything to stop Kobe, I think that they have a chance to completely shut down the front court help on that Lakers team. Camby and Martin should easily shut down any combination of big men that LA will trot out there. If that happens, Kobe might give up and try to win it on his own with his offense, instead of focusing on the defensive end shutting down 'Melo, which doesn't bode well for the Lakers – as I've already said – especially since Kobe won't have to put in that much effort to get his points. The extra effort won't get him that many more points, but the points that 'Melo will get with Kobe focusing on the offensive side will be enough. Barely.


5. The big three question marks for the Nuggets are going to come out and play well. Okay, I have no evidence for this, but the Nuggets will win if these three come to play in every game: J.R. Smith, Linas Kleiza, and Eduardo Najera.


6. Did I mention that I hate the Lakers? Yeah, that's important for this, and the one other important thing: I don't think anyone is picking the Nuggets. Didn't they learn from the Warriors last year? This is a team that won 50 games in the west. They showed glimpses of brilliance, and they're pretty tough to beat a mile up. If the Staples Center was some amazing place where the fans brought the ruckus, I'd say that there was no way Denver can steal a game in LA. But this is a stadium filled with celebrities who are there to be noticed.

Denver wins in six.